Ryu grabs lead at Women's Australian Open
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02/10/2012 - Victoria, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Reigning U.S. Women's Open champion So Yeon Ryu fired a four-under 69 on Friday to climb into the lead after two rounds of the Women's Australian Open, while Hee Kyung Seo used a big round to get into contention.
Ryu sits at six-under-par 140, one shot in front of Seo, whose seven-under 66 on Friday turned her chances around after she began the LPGA season-opener with a 75.
The two are in a familiar spot, competing at the top of the leaderboard. Ryu beat Seo in a three-hole playoff to win the U.S. Women's Open title last July. Seo then went on to win rookie of the year, the same honor Ryu is aiming for in 2012.
"It is still the start of the season," Ryu, who was a member of the Korean LPGA last year, said. "I don't know how I can win the tournament. But the goal is rookie of the year."
First-round co-leaders Stacy Lewis and Sarah Kemp both struggled Friday. Kemp shot a six-over 79 and dropped into a tie for 19th at plus-two, while Lewis persevered through an eventful back nine to post an even-par 73.
During a seven-hole stretch, Lewis posted three bogeys, a triple-bogey, two birdies and an eagle. She reached seven-under, then fell to two-under, and needed the eagle at No. 17 just to make par for the round.
She sits in third at four-under-par 142, tied with Jessica Korda (70), Julieta Granada (72) and Melissa Reid (71).
Yani Tseng, the two-time defending champion, posted a quadruple-bogey at No. 7 and finished with a 76 to drop to even-par overall. Only nine players have been able to stay below par through two rounds.
Seo's round was all the more impressive because she bogeyed two holes, including her first, No. 10. But after that, she ran off three consecutive birdies -- and six in her next eight holes overall -- to make the turn at three-under.
She was cruising until a bogey at the par-four No. 4, but again rebounded immediately. Seo drained consecutive birdies at five and six before adding another at the eighth, ending her ascent. The 66 is the best round of the tournament so far.
"Sometimes when I play this kind of course, I am afraid too much about the course and can't play my game and can't make my own swing," Seo said. "But today I was thinking about routine process and coming on the target and that worked really good."
Ryu didn't have as far to go to get to the top of the leaderboard, having posted a two-under 71 on Thursday.
She didn't get off to the best start Friday, with a bogey on her second hole. But, like Seo, she used a string of birdies to rebound.
A birdie at the par-four 13th got the stroke back, and consecutive birdies from the 16th put Ryu at minus-four heading around the turn. She birdied three of her first six holes on the front nine, but a bogey at the seventh bumped her back to six-under.
Still, that was good enough to hold the lead when many players couldn't stay near the top of the leaderboard.
Lewis' fall was extremely abrupt. After a birdie at No. 13 put her at seven- under, she triple-bogeyed the 14th and bogeyed the next two holes to lose whatever grasp of the lead she had.
Tseng was one shot behind the leaders after the first round, and started to make a charge with birdies at the second and third. But the world's top-ranked player, who won seven times on the LPGA Tour and 12 times worldwide last season, also fell quickly.
In addition to the quadruple-bogey, Tseng bogeyed Nos. five, eight and nine, and made the turn at plus-two. She played a bogey-free back nine, but couldn't make up for the 41-stroke front nine.
American teenage sensation Lexi Thompson, who turned 17 years old on Friday, shot another 74 and is tied for 19th at plus-two. She is the youngest winner in LPGA and Ladies European Tour history, having won the LPGA Classic in September and Dubai Ladies Masters in December.
NOTES: The cut is expected to fall at seven-over-par 153. Among those who missed it was Laura Davies (159), the 2004 and 2009 champion of this event. She was also runner-up to Tseng in 2010...Second-ranked Suzann Pettersen posted a two-under 71 on Friday. She had stumbled to an 80 for her first round...Fourth-ranked Cristie Kerr just made the cut, despite shooting a five- over 78 on Friday.
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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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